Week 14: Look Out! Here comes Joel!

This week:

1. Bob (11-5 + 3 bonus) - 14 points

2. Joel (11-5 + 2.5 bonus) - 13.5 points

3. Jarrett M. (10-5 + 0.5 bonus) - 10.5 points

3. Roger (10-5 + 0.5 bonus) - 10.5 points

5. Jonathan (9-7) - 9 points

5. Jeremy (9-7) - 9 points

7. Patrick (8-8) - 8 points

8. Jarrett R. (6-10) - 6 points

9. Nathan (5-11) - 5 points

Back in week 12 I said, "Don't forget about Joel." Whether or not you disgregarded Joel's chances at the championship, he doesn't really care. He now sits in second place, only 3.46 points behind Jarrett M.

The winner of the week was actually Bob by virtue of his Eagles loner pick. Both he and Roger have been closing the gap the last couple of weeks.

Week 14 notes: (1) Joel still leads the pool in points for but is third in wins (behind Jarrett M. and Jonathan). (2) The Seahawks forced 8 turnovers on Sunday. The Colts have forced 8 turnovers for the entire year. (3) Monday's game was Tom Brady's 14th career game with 4+ touchdowns and 0 interceptions, the most such games in NFL history.

So far:

1. Jarrett M. (135-72 + 12.83 bonus) - 147.83 points (no change)

2. Joel (132-75 + 12.37 bonus) - 144.37 points (+2)

3. Jonathan (133-74 + 10.53 bonus) - 143.53 points (-1)

4. Patrick (129-78 +10.58 bonus) - 139.58 points (-1)

5. Jeremy (130-77 + 8.45 bonus) - 138.45 points (no change)

6. Roger (127-80 + 8.08 bonus) - 135.08 points (no change)

7. Bob (121-86 + 11.03 bonus) - 132.03 points (no change)

8. Jarrett R. (120-87 + 10.58 bonus) - 130.58 points (no change)

9. Nathan (105 - 102 + 8.45 bonus) - 110.53 points (no change)

Week 13: Bob and Roger Strike Back

This week:

1. Bob (11-5 + 2.5 bonus) - 13.5 points
1. Roger (11-5 + 2.5 bonus) - 13.5 points
3. Jarrett R. (10-6 + 1 bonus) - 11 points
4. Jonathan (10-6 + 0.5 bonus) - 10.5 points
5. Joel (9-7 + 0.5 bonus) - 9.5 points
6. Patrick (9-7) - 9 points
6. Jarrett M. (9-7) - 9 points
8. Jeremy (8-8) - 8 points
9. Nathan (7-9) - 7 points

C-3PO: Sir, the possibility of successfully navigating an asteroid is approximately 3,720 to 1.
Han Salo: Never tell me the odds.
--Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back

The good news: Bob and Roger were week 13's winners, going 11-5. The bad news: they still both sit near the bottom of the pool standings, and it will be nearly impossible for either of them to win the championship. But don't tell them the odds.

For the fourth straight week, Jarrett M. sits atop the total standings. But as Darth Vader might say, "The momentum is with you, young McLeod, but you are not a champion yet." In week 13, Jarrett M. saw his lead reduced by 1.5 points by his older brother Jonathan, setting the stage for an epic duel in week 14.

Week 13 notes: (1) Joel's successful loner pick of the Redskins allowed him to jump ahead of his younger brother Jeremy. Joel and Jeremy were the only two who changed positions in the total standings this week. Correction: Roger also moved up one spot into a tie for sixth. (2) Jarrett. R. recovered nicely after forgetting to submit his picks in week 12. He had 3 loner picks, 2 of which were successful (Colts and Seahawks). Should we expect more risky picks from Jarrett R. in the weeks to come? (3) Patrick, Joel, and Jeremy are all tied with 121 wins. (4) Tom Brady became the first starting quarterback in NFL history to win 10 division titles, surpassing Joe Montana's 9.

So far:

1. Jarrett M. (125-66 + 12.33 bonus) - 137.33 points (no change)
2. Jonathan (124-67 + 10.53 bonus) - 134.53 points (no change)
3. Patrick (121-70 + 10.58 bonus) - 131.58 points (no change)
4. Joel (121-70 + 9.87 bonus) - 130.87 points (+1)
5. Jeremy (121-70 + 8.45 bonus) - 129.45 (-1)
6. Jarrett R. (114-77 + 10.58 bonus) - 124.58 points (no change)
6. Roger (117-74 + 7.58 bonus) - 124.58 points (+1)
8. Bob (110-81 + 8.03 bonus) - 118.03 points (no change)
9. Nathan (100-91 + 5.53 bonus) - 105.53 points (no change)

Week 3: What About Bob?

This week:

1. Bob (8-8 + 3 bonus) - 11 points
2. Jeremy (7-9 + 1.5 bonus) - 8.5 points
2. Roger (7-9 + 1.5 bonus) - 8.5 points
4. Patrick (6-10 + 1 bonus) - 7 points
5. Jarrett R. (6-10) - 6 points
5. Nathan (6-10) - 6 points
7. Jonathan (5-11) - 5 points
7. Jarrett M. (5-11) - 5 points
9. Joel (4-12) - 4 points

"You think he's gone? He's not gone. That's the whole point! He's never gone!"--Dr. Leo Marvin, What About Bob?

After week 1, Bob had a big problem. He forgot to submit his picks for week 1's Sunday games. (Full disclosure: Bob was awarded points for the five unanimous correct picks in week 1. This has been standard practice in the pool when picks have been forgotten.)

But Bob wasn't thinking about the seemingly impossible task of going from last to first. What was he thinking about? Baby steps.

Baby steps? Yes, baby steps. Bob's not thinking about one giant leap. He's thinking about taking one small step at a time until he reaches the top.

The wily veteran was the only pool member not under .500 in week 3. This week Bob took a few steps, passing Nathan, Jarrett M., and Roger. Next week he plans to take one or two more steps. Watch out, Patrick and Joel.

Baby steps.

Week 3 notes: (1) Through the first three weeks, the 2012 season has been, in recent memory, the toughest season for picks. (2) Somehow Patrick had two (TWO!) successful loner picks and still didn't finish in the top three. (3) Jarrett M. sent a text to Jonathan on Saturday evening proclaiming his confidence in a possible 15-0 week. Sadly for him, that confidence was unfounded.

So far:

1. Jeremy (27-21 + 5 bonus) - 32 points
2. Jarrett R. (27-21 + 4.5 bonus) - 31.5 points
3. Jonathan (25-23 + 2.5 bonus) - 27.5 points
4. Joel (23-25 + 1.83 bonus) - 24.83 points
5. Patrick (23-25 + 1.33 bonus) - 24.33 points
6. Bob (21-27 + 3 bonus) - 24 points
7. Roger (22-26 + 1.83 bonus) - 23.83 bonus
8. Jarrett M. (22-26 + 1 bonus) - 23 points
9. Nathan (21-27 + 0 bonus) - 21 points

Week 15 - False Prophet?

Week 15 Results

Bob - 10-6 (+2.5)
Joel - 10-6 (+2.5)
Jarrett - 9-7 (+0.33)
Jonathan - 9-7 (+0.33)
Patrick - 9-7 (+0.33)
Jeremy - 7-9
John - 7-9
Roger - 6-10

We're about half-way done the pool now, and John has broken 100 points. I'm not sure he's catchable, even for you guys who think you're close. He's just statistically too consistent. [...] Sorry to burst everyone's bubbles (except for John's).--Joel, week 8

Well, it's now week 15 and Patrick's bubble is alive and well. The Mighty Morand has surprisingly managed to pull within 2.34 points of John. Certainly, the PIT/SF game was the most critical of the week. If the Steelers had won on Monday night, there would be a virtual tie for first. It seems Commander Couch is getting a bit reckless, admitting that he picked Denver to make watching the game with Jonathan more interesting. (Or was that an excuse for a foolish pick?)

But let's not forget this week's winners: Bob and Joel. "Big Herm" is now in third and determined to prevent the Forest Hills Boys from keeping all the medals in Dartmouth/Eastern Passage. "The Prophet" Joel also has visions of third place dancing in his head. Too bad his head has also been full of many bad picks. Question for Joel: If anyone had correctly picked the Colts to win in week 15, would they still have been given worst pick of the week? Word is that Jonathan, "The Minister of Prognostication," is not only aiming for third spot, but also first place in points for (now second behind Patrick). This would allow him to take home the (uncoveted) "Tough Luck" award.

"Golden Boy" Jeremy didn't have a very golden week. But Kuehner clan bragging rights are still in reach as he's only 2.23 points behind Joel. And what can be said about Roger "Ace" Fenton? Not much good can be said when you get beat by both "participants-in-training." "Moody" Jarrett (a.k.a., the human 10-second delay), could still escape the basement with two strong closing weeks.

Merry Christmas, everyone!

--Jonathan

Week 15 has come and gone, and the jockeying continues. The leader board looks roughly as follows, with point differentials relative to the person ahead, and rounded to the nearest 0.5:

1. John
2. Patrick -2.5
3. Bob -10.5
4. Jonathan -3
5. Joel -4.5
6. Jeremy -2.5
7. Roger -7
8. Jarrett -10.5

What does this mean? This means that: John has a chance of being caught. Patrick has a chance of catching someone. Bob has a chance of being caught. Jonathan has a chance of catching someone, and of being caught. Joel has a chance of catching someone, and of being caught. Jeremy has a chance of catching someone, and of being caught. Roger has a chance of catching someone. Jarrett should submit picks more often.

I'll qualify all of that with the fact that really, John is sitting pretty and Patrick has no chance of catching anyone, due to the email I sent out around week 8.

Best pick of the week: Seahawks over Bears.

Worst pick of the week: Jets over Eagles.

Critical game of the week: Steelers @ Niners.

Too bad no one picked the Colts. They would have, for the first time ever, received best pick of the week (because it would have been, unless someone had also picked KC) and worst pick of the week (because I'm a man of my word).

Sorry, Roger, about Oakland. That one had me worried as soon as I saw you'd picked them. I knew Oakland could very well win that, and I thought you had a pretty decent loner.

--Joel

Week 12 - John Sails to Victory Once Again

Week 12 Results

This week's winners:

  

John - 14-2 (+3)
Bob - 13-3 (+1)
Joel - 13-3 (+1)
Roger - 13-3 (+1)
Jarrett - 12-4
Jeremy - 11-5
Jonathan - 10-6
Patrick - 10-6

See what I did there? John...sailing...he's in the navy. Pretty clever, huh?

Following a couple of poor weeks earlier in November, John had been complaining that his navy duties were affecting his picks. But now after a strong week by Commander Couch and a poor week by Patrick, John is once again comfortably in first. It was thought that Patrick might pose a challenge to John, but, as Dennis Green might say, it seems he is who we thought he was.

A few notes: (1) Bob is now only 3.33 points behind Patrick. (2) Joel has surpassed Jeremy for Kuehner family bragging rights. (3) Roger is now tied with Jeremy in sixth place. (4) When interviewed, Jarrett thought he had missed only one week of picks instead of two.

The McLeod brothers might not be doing too well in the pool, but at least their Patriots are having another fine season. (Hey, wasn't there someone in this pool who kept saying the Jets were going to win the AFC East?) Unfortunately, the other favorite teams of the pool participants aren't doing so well (Jaguars, Bills, Browns, Eagles). And what's going on with Joel's Lions? After a Suh-weet start, their season is turning sour.

Here's a question for you: would you rather have your favorite team with the Super Bowl or you win the pool?

If John puts as much thought into his weekly picks as he did to construct the above apparatus, it's no wonder he's doing so well this season!

--Jonathan

Mr. Complacency no more. John pounds the mouse and thumps the keys to take solo first place in week 12. John's picks were the same as mine, except he picked BAL over SF. His picks were the same as Bob's, except he picked NYJ over BUF. John was right on both accounts.

In case no one noticed, Bob is now in second place in terms of Right-Wrong picks, with 118 to Pat's 117.  Roger also pulled off another strong week. Jarrett had a pretty good week as well, but will it be too little too late?

Best pick of the week: Broncos over Chargers. Kudos to the Tebow believers.

Worst pick of the week: Colts over Panthers. I said before that any Indy pick automatically gets worst pick of the week.

Critical game of the week: Niners at Ravens.

--Joel

Current Standings

Week 11 - A Creature Is Stirring in the Basement

Week 11 Results

This week's winners:

Jarrett - 12-2 (+2.5)
Bob - 12-2 (+2)
Joel - 12-2 (+2)
John - 11-3
Jonathan - 10-4
Roger - 10-4
Patrick - 9-5
Jeremy - 8-6

If Jarrett were writing this post, he might say, "Allow me to crack the bubbly!" (inside joke).

Back when Jarrett was living at home (which wasn't too long ago), he often remained asleep in his basement bedroom until sometime in the afternoon. Perhaps he was still asleep at 2:00 on those two Sunday afternoons that he didn't submit any picks.

Either way, the following question must be asked: Has Jarrett now awoken from his Football Pool slumber? The answer: It appears so. And that answer leads to another question: Is it too late for Jarrett? The answer: Yes. But an additional question comes to mind: Can Jarrett escape the basement? The answer: Perhaps. But who can he catch? The obvious answer: The free-falling Jeremy. And what is the probability of that happening? The answer: According to our calculations: He has a 16.7% chance of catching Jeremy. And one final question: How ashamed would anyone be if Jarrett caught them? The answer: Very.

Seriously, one can only wonder what position Jarrett would be in now if he had simply remembered to submit picks for all of the games. (Keep in mind that his forgetfulness also led to several desperation picks.)

"Let me tell you right now, there are two Canadian brothers--I think their last name is McLeod--that probably could be linebackers on this team. Why haven't we signed them? Well, I'll tell you why. They're Patriots fans, and I can't convince them to play for the Jets."--Jets coach Rex Ryan

--Jonathan

Look out! Here comes Jarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrretttttttttttttttttttttttt!!!!!!!!!!! Jarett went with the dream team, and he gets rewarded with a successful loner pick, and a tie for first! If he'd submitted his Thursday pick, maybe he'd have taken the week by himself.

It was a fine start this week for Bob and Roger. The rest of us now all wish we'd had the guts to do what they did. We wanted Denver to win. We knew Denver could win. But we were scared that other people would pick the Jets and get it right. Well, they had the guts, and they got off to a head start.

Bob used that head start to grab part of the 3-way tie for first. Too bad he didn't have enough confidence in his own Eagles; if he had, he'd have had sole possession of first place.

Best pick of the week: Eagles over Giants.

Worst pick of the week: Bills over Dolphins.

Critical game of the week: Seahawks at Rams.

--Joel

Current Standings

Week 9 - Impossible Is Nothing

Week 9 Results

This week's winners:

  

  

Patrick - 8-6 (+1.5)
Jonathan - 8-6 (+1.5)
Jarrett - 8-6 (+1)
Bob - 8-6 (+1)
Joel - 8-6 (+1)
Roger - 8-6 (+1)
Jeremy - 7-7
John - 7-7

Joel says John can't be caught, but Patrick has been gaining ground the last two weeks. He's now only 6.67 points behind. Has John grown complacent (according to Joel, another impossibility--see last week's comments)? Probably not. But, suddenly, the race for first has became a whole lot more interesting.

Speaking of Joel, our mighty commissioner finally tasted the sweet nectar of victory (albeit it was a six-way tie, and technically Patrick and Jonathan led the weak due to their loner picks--but we won't mention that). To Joel's great satisfaction, his correct pick of Arizona was critical to his first place finish. Had St. Louis won, it would have been only Patrick and Jonathan in first (most critical game of the week?).

Both Patrick and Jonathan made last-minute changes to their picks, each deciding to go with a New York team. Patrick picked the Giants, and Jonathan picked the Jets. Both picks turned out to be successful loner picks, enabling them to gain the most points in week 9.

The only change of position this week was Bob surpassing Jeremy for third. In the past two weeks, Bob has gained 6.5 more points than Jeremy. Now only 0.42 points separate Bob, Jeremy, and Jonathan. Would any of them be content with the bronze medal? Does Joel send out punctual recap emails? In other words, NO! (Sorry, Joel.)

Roger, Joel, and Jarrett are all battling to avoid the basement. Jarrett's strategy seems to have shifted. He's now flinging less hail Marys and throwing more solid short-range passes. Perhaps his goal is no longer to capture the glory of first, but to escape the shame of last.

One reason for hope for those who are trying to catch John: take a look at his points for/against differential. It's fourth best in the pool. This means that a lot of the close games have been going John's way. Perhaps the second half of the season won't be so kind to him.

"In our opinion, Joel Kuehner resembles an old Barry Sanders. Our scouts have their eyes on him. And there's a very real possibility that if Jackson can't go this Sunday, you could see Joel in a Bills uniform. However, the league has advised us that a conflict of interest might exist due to Joel's position as an NFL football pool commissioner."--Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey

Joel is so fast, he makes other guys seem like they're standing still!

--Jonathan

Current Standings

Week 8 - Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Week 8 Results

This weeks winners:

 

Bob - 10-3 (+2.5)
Patrick - 10-3 (+2.5)
Jonathan - 10-3 (+2)
Jeremy - 8-5
Joel - 8-5
John 8-5
Jarrett 7-6
Roger 7-6

I think week 8 was the first time this season when the MNF game was meaningful for our pool. AND WHAT A GAME IT WAS! (However, I'm sure I would have a different perspective if I had been on the losing end of that game.)

In case you missed it, the game was tied 20-20 with less than a minute left and the Chargers on the Chief's 15-yard line. Everyone knew that San Diego would soon kick a game-winning field goal. BUT EVERYONE WAS WRONG!

What happened? Philip Rivers fumbled the snap and the Chiefs recovered. The game went into overtime and the rest is history. (Are the Chargers the least-clutch team in NFL history?)

For Philip Rivers, it was "the worst day ever." For me, checking the score this morning gave me a nice start to my day. (I now wish I had stayed up to see the end of the Chargers/Chiefs game--or at least PVRed it. Unfortunately, I turned the TV off right before this play.)

Was week 8 the start of John's fall back down to earth? Or was it simply a bump in the road? Time will tell.

--Jonathan

It seems some folks are a bit put off that some of the weekly recaps are too much Joel-focused, and not enough them-focused. So I'll attempt to stroke a few egos this week. But first, the objective stuff.

Best pick of the week: Steelers over Patriots. (I would've given this to Pat for his Vikings pick, but his Cowboys pick nullified it.)

Worst pick of the week: Cowboys over Eagles.

Critical game of the week: Chargers at Chiefs. (If this had gone the other way, Bob would have won outright and there would have been a 5-way tie for second).

Kudos to Bob for a stellar week. He didn't even pick the Chargers/Chiefs game, and he still tied for first place. Kudos to Pat for a stellar week. He picked the Cowboys over the Eagles, and he still tied for first place. Kudos to Jonathan for a stellar week. He kind of tied for first, but didn't have a loner pick. He actually gained ground on John. Kudos to Jeremy for doing as well as John. Kudos to John for doing as well as Jeremy. Kudos to Roger for correctly going against his Browns. I know it's hard, but you're getting better at it this year. Kudos to Jarrett for ... um ... picking KC.

We're about half-way done the pool now, and John has broken 100 points. I'm not sure he's catchable, even for you guys who think you're close. He's just statistically too consistent. It's like election night, when the liberals/democrats are winning, and you're thinking, "But wait, only 20% of the polls are reporting! There's still a chance we'll come back! What if every remaining voter votes conservative/republican?", but you know it's just not going to happen. Sorry to burst everyone's bubbles (except for John's). Note: this does not mean we're officially projecting John as the 2011 pool winner.

--Joel

Week 5 - Somebody Stop John!

Week 5 Results

This week's winners:

  

He could...go...all...the...way!

At one point during the early games it looked like I might gain a few points on John. Then everything fell apart. Well, at least I got the San Francisco pick right.

Question: Why are the late games so much easier to pick?

--Jonathan

Well, I think I did it! I think I pretty much picked all of the teams that would be trailing after three quarters! At least my Lions are providing me some joy this season.

Best pick of the week: Raiders over Texans.

Worst pick of the week: Bucs over Niners (and John still won the week).

Critical game of the week: Cardinals at Vikings.

--Joel

Current Standings

Week 2 - More Morand

Week 2 Results

It's not midnight yet, is it?

Here are the week 2 results.

Patrick is making Roger try a little harder to keep up this year.

Best pick of the week:  Bucs over Vikings.

Worst pick of the week:  Chiefs over Lions.

Critical game of the week:  Cowboys at Niners.

--Joel Kuehner