Week 8 - Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Week 8 Results

This weeks winners:

 

Bob - 10-3 (+2.5)
Patrick - 10-3 (+2.5)
Jonathan - 10-3 (+2)
Jeremy - 8-5
Joel - 8-5
John 8-5
Jarrett 7-6
Roger 7-6

I think week 8 was the first time this season when the MNF game was meaningful for our pool. AND WHAT A GAME IT WAS! (However, I'm sure I would have a different perspective if I had been on the losing end of that game.)

In case you missed it, the game was tied 20-20 with less than a minute left and the Chargers on the Chief's 15-yard line. Everyone knew that San Diego would soon kick a game-winning field goal. BUT EVERYONE WAS WRONG!

What happened? Philip Rivers fumbled the snap and the Chiefs recovered. The game went into overtime and the rest is history. (Are the Chargers the least-clutch team in NFL history?)

For Philip Rivers, it was "the worst day ever." For me, checking the score this morning gave me a nice start to my day. (I now wish I had stayed up to see the end of the Chargers/Chiefs game--or at least PVRed it. Unfortunately, I turned the TV off right before this play.)

Was week 8 the start of John's fall back down to earth? Or was it simply a bump in the road? Time will tell.

--Jonathan

It seems some folks are a bit put off that some of the weekly recaps are too much Joel-focused, and not enough them-focused. So I'll attempt to stroke a few egos this week. But first, the objective stuff.

Best pick of the week: Steelers over Patriots. (I would've given this to Pat for his Vikings pick, but his Cowboys pick nullified it.)

Worst pick of the week: Cowboys over Eagles.

Critical game of the week: Chargers at Chiefs. (If this had gone the other way, Bob would have won outright and there would have been a 5-way tie for second).

Kudos to Bob for a stellar week. He didn't even pick the Chargers/Chiefs game, and he still tied for first place. Kudos to Pat for a stellar week. He picked the Cowboys over the Eagles, and he still tied for first place. Kudos to Jonathan for a stellar week. He kind of tied for first, but didn't have a loner pick. He actually gained ground on John. Kudos to Jeremy for doing as well as John. Kudos to John for doing as well as Jeremy. Kudos to Roger for correctly going against his Browns. I know it's hard, but you're getting better at it this year. Kudos to Jarrett for ... um ... picking KC.

We're about half-way done the pool now, and John has broken 100 points. I'm not sure he's catchable, even for you guys who think you're close. He's just statistically too consistent. It's like election night, when the liberals/democrats are winning, and you're thinking, "But wait, only 20% of the polls are reporting! There's still a chance we'll come back! What if every remaining voter votes conservative/republican?", but you know it's just not going to happen. Sorry to burst everyone's bubbles (except for John's). Note: this does not mean we're officially projecting John as the 2011 pool winner.

--Joel

Week 7 - [Insert Clever Title]

Week 7 Results

This week's winner:

John - 10-3 (+3)
Jeremy - 9-4 (+2)
Patrick - 8-5 (+1)
Jarrett - 7-6
Joel - 7-6
Jonathan - 7-6
Roger - 7-6
Bob - 6-7

Well, positions one through eight remain unchanged after week 7, but John's lead continues to increase. How far is John ahead? If John didn't make his picks for the next two weeks, he still would remain ahead of Joel!

In the battle for the silver medal, Jeremy is less than one point behind Patrick.

Joel's love affair with Arizona continued. When will he come to his senses and permanently break up with the Cardinals? Adding to Joel's misery was a second straight loss for his Lions.

"What? John picked us, and Joel picked Arizona? YEAH! Looks like a win for us!"--Lamar Woodley

--Jonathan

Current Standings

Us Versus the "Experts"

This week, I added links to four sports websites (look to the right) that include NFL picks by their various writers and personalities (USA Today, CBS, Yahoo!, ESPN). If those guys were members of our pool, what would the standings look like? See below.

1. Mike Silver (Yahoo!) - 71-19
2. John Couch - 67-23
3. Mike Golic (ESPN) - 66-24
4. ? Judge (CBS) - 64-26
5. Les Carpenter (Yahoo!) - 64-26
6. Merrill Hodge (ESPN) - 64-26
7. Patrick Morand - 63-27
8. Pete O'Brien (USA Today) - 63-27
9. Mike Schlereth (ESPN) - 63-27
10. Nate Davis (USA Today) - 63-27
11. Jeremy Kuehner - 62-28
12. ? Wickersham (ESPN) - 62-28
13. Bob Hermann - 61-29
14. Jonathan McLeod - 61-29
15. Jarrett Bell (USA Today) - 61-29
16. Adam Schefter ( ESPN) - 61-29
17. John Saraceno (USA Today) - 61-29
18. Gary Mihoces (USA Today) - 60-30
19. Jason Cole (Yahoo!) - 60-30
20. Pete Prisco (CBS) - 60-30
21. ? Richard (CBS) - 60-30
22. Jim Corbett (USA Today) - 60-30
23. Tom Pedulla (USA Today) - 59-31
24. ? Allen (ESPN) - 59-31
25. ? Freeman (CBS) - 59-31
26. Joel Kuehner - 58-32
27. Robert Kelmko (USA Today) - 58-32
28. Roger Fenton - 57-32
29. Chris Mortenson (ESPN) - 54-36
30. ? Brison (CBS) - 54-36
31. Jarrett McLeod - 52-38

Week 6 - Sofa So Good for Couch

Week 6 Results

This week's winner:

John - 11-2 (+3)
Jeremy - 10-3 (+0.75)
Joel - 10-3 (+0.75)
Jonathan - 10-3 (+0.75)
Roger 10-3 (+0.75)
Bob - 9-5
Jarrett - 8-5
Patrick - 8-5

I repeat: SOMEBODY STOP JOHN!

Once again, John is this week's winner. Somehow the crucial games always seem to go his way. What's his secret? Superior prognostication skills or his collection of four-leaf clovers and horseshoes?

Roger almost served a second straight ace. Meanwhile, Jeremy is quietly inching his way toward second place. Patrick needs to return to his early season form. Perhaps he should make more use of his Sunday Ticket package ("I've got all the games!") and turn his rec room into a film room. What about Bob? Unfortunately for him, he was on the wrong side of both of the crucial games.

It looks like Jarrett is already in desperation mode, but I think it's a bit early to be throwing Hail Marys. Personally, I'm trying to remain patient. John's due for a couple of bad weeks in a row, right? RIGHT?

Inspired by John's mini-rant on Joel's "Joel recap," some of the pool members had a little fun with Joel's spreadsheet. Perhaps Joel felt the rebuke was warranted since he has not yet deleted the comments.

Is this picture a foreshadowing of the season-ending exchange between Joel and John, if John wins? (I said "if.")

--Jonathan

Well, I thought I was doing well in week 6. The difference between me gaining on John and John gaining on me was a late Fitzpatrick pick. But that's what John gets paid the big bucks for--he knew the pick was coming; I didn't.

Best pick of the week: Niners over Lions.

Worst pick of the week: Vikings over Bears.

Critical game of the week: Bills at Giants.

I got to see the Lions, Niners and Bills play this week. One thing I observed: these teams have pretty good records, but I think that's got to be because all of the other teams are getting worse. I didn't see any of them play particularly well--certainly not well enough to warrant their nice records.

--Joel

Current Standings

Week 5 - Somebody Stop John!

Week 5 Results

This week's winners:

  

He could...go...all...the...way!

At one point during the early games it looked like I might gain a few points on John. Then everything fell apart. Well, at least I got the San Francisco pick right.

Question: Why are the late games so much easier to pick?

--Jonathan

Well, I think I did it! I think I pretty much picked all of the teams that would be trailing after three quarters! At least my Lions are providing me some joy this season.

Best pick of the week: Raiders over Texans.

Worst pick of the week: Bucs over Niners (and John still won the week).

Critical game of the week: Cardinals at Vikings.

--Joel

Current Standings

First Quarter Stats

The current NFL season is now one-quarter complete. I went back and looked at our records for each team. (You can find the chart here. This is the first time I did a spreadsheet, so I didn't really now what I was doing. If anyone has some extra time, you could edit Joel's spreadsheet to automatically calculate these stats. I have no clue how to do that.) So without further ado, here is what I discovered.

• Most predictable teams so far: San Diego (31-0), New Orleans (31-0), St. Louis (30-1), Green Bay (30-1), Miami (29-2), Carolina (28-3), Houston (27-4), Indianapolis (26-5).
• Most unpredictable teams so far: Buffalo (8-23), Cincinnati (10-21), Tennessee (11-20), Philadelphia (13-18), San Francisco (14-17), Cleveland (14-17).
• Each member's most impressive performance: Jarrett (3-0 picking Tampa Bay games), Bob (4-0 picking Tampa Bay games), Jeremy (4-0 picking Seattle games), Joel (3-1 picking Tennessee games), Jonathan (3-1 picking San Francisco games), John (4-0 picking Washington games), Patrick (4-0 picking Kansas City games), Roger (4-0 picking Detroit games).
• Each member's least impressive performance: Jarrett (0-3 picking Tennessee games), Bob (2-2 picking Carolina games), Jeremy (1-3 picking Tampa Bay games), Joel (1-3 picking NY Giants games), Jonathan (2-2 picking Minnesota games), John (1-3 picking Cleveland games), Patrick (2-2 picking Arizona games), Roger (0-4 picking Buffalo games).

(One further note: Jarrett only has three picks for each team because he forgot to submit his picks for week 3.)

Week 4 - Off the Couch and into the Lead

Week 4 Results

This week's winners:

 

I believe the goal this season is to pick who will be trailing after 3 quarters.  If you can figure that out, then you assume that team will be the winner.

As Jonathan says, we have a new leader.  Congratulations to John.  However, Patrick's still right there, and he had another solid week.  He's yet to have a vintage Pat week in which he forfeits his entire season's gains.

Best pick of the week: Titans over Browns.

Worst pick of the week: Broncos over Packers in cheese town.

Critical game of the week: Giants at Cardinals.  I know that's probably a bit biased, but if that game had gone the way it was supposed to, without the refs blowing a call, I'd have beat y'all.  (Of course, I always say you can't blame a game's outcome on a single call.)

--Joel Kuehner

Current Standings

(Here's the video of the "fumble.")